A daring $15,000 bet on Polymarket is shaking up expectations for next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

JustWakingUp, Polymarket's top trader with nearly $400 million in trading volume, is wagering on a 50 basis point interest rate cut—a significant divergence from the market's 91% probability (according to CME's FedWatch Tool) of a 25 basis point cut. This contrarian bet could yield a massive $226,000 payout if successful. The recent disappointing jobs report, showing a larger-than-expected decrease in job growth, has increased the odds of a more aggressive rate cut, although the market remains largely skeptical.

Traders are now scrutinizing upcoming inflation data to gauge the likelihood of this bold prediction coming true.